TY - JOUR
T1 - An analytical framework for postmortems of European foreign policy
T2 - should decision-makers have been surprised?
AU - Ikani, Nikki
AU - Guttmann, Aviva
AU - Meyer, Christoph O.
N1 - Funding Information:
The past support of the European Research Council (Grant 202022) as well as the UK Economic and Social Research Council (Grant ES/R004331/1) are gratefully acknowledged. The authors would also like to thank Michael Goodman, Eva Michaels and the members of the INTEL Advisory Board for comments on previous drafts. We would also like to thank the editors and the reviewers for their thoughtful and constructive comments. The authors remain responsible for all the judgements and any errors in the article
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019, © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
PY - 2020/1/1
Y1 - 2020/1/1
N2 - This paper develops a novel theoretical framework for the conduct of postmortems after major foreign policy surprises for the European Union and its member states. It proposes a taxonomy of surprise which elucidates how officials or organisations experience both sudden and slower-burning threats. It argues that foreign policy surprises in European settings require a closer look at who was surprised, in what way, and when. The paper outlines six vital performance criteria and three key attenuating factors, allowing us to better ground judgements about foreign policy performance as well as to advance realistic recommendations on how to improve.
AB - This paper develops a novel theoretical framework for the conduct of postmortems after major foreign policy surprises for the European Union and its member states. It proposes a taxonomy of surprise which elucidates how officials or organisations experience both sudden and slower-burning threats. It argues that foreign policy surprises in European settings require a closer look at who was surprised, in what way, and when. The paper outlines six vital performance criteria and three key attenuating factors, allowing us to better ground judgements about foreign policy performance as well as to advance realistic recommendations on how to improve.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85078630316&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/02684527.2019.1704384
DO - 10.1080/02684527.2019.1704384
M3 - Article
SN - 0268-4527
VL - 35
SP - 197
EP - 215
JO - Intelligence and National Security
JF - Intelligence and National Security
IS - 2
ER -