How sensitive are river systems to climate and land-use changes? A model-based evaluation

Simulated Holocene sediment discharges from a high-resolution cellular model of river evolution in northern England, driven by a peat-bog proxy climate and palynological based land-cover record, show a very close similarity to alluviation phases evident in British river valleys. Independent validation of the model indicates that British river systems have been surprisingly sensitive to short term (ca. 10(2) yr) climate fluctuations, although river dynamics also have been modulated by land-use change and sediment supply. This has important implications for understanding alluvial system evolution, establishing controlling factors and, most importantly, forecasting river response to future climate and land-use changes. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.