TY - JOUR
T1 - Hydrodynamic Modeling of Inundation Patterns of a Large African Floodplain Indicates Sensitivity to Waterway Restoration
AU - Willis, T. D. M.
AU - Smith, M. W.
AU - Cross, D. E.
AU - Hardy, A. J.
AU - Ettrich, G. E.
AU - Malawo, H.
AU - Chalo, C.
AU - Sinkombo, M.
AU - Thomas, C. J.
N1 - Funding Information:
We thank the people of Barotseland for their warm welcome and guidance, and our colleagues in the University of Barotseland. We are especially grateful to Vincent Siaziyu, Limulunga District Environmental Health Officer and colleagues in the Zambezi EcoHealth Partnership and programme manager Alex Malloy. This work is funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (Grant Ref: NE/P013481/1). We also thank the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and insights, and to Jeff Neal for his comments, help and guidance in using LISFLOOD-FP correctly.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022. The Authors.
PY - 2022/11/28
Y1 - 2022/11/28
N2 - Large-scale floodplains are important features of the African continent. Regular inundation provides the means to support large populations but can also present problems such as access to health facilities and water body formation that sustain malaria vectors. Modeling of these floodplains is therefore important, but complex. In this research, we develop, calibrate, and validate a hydrodynamic model of the Barotse Floodplain, of the Upper Zambezi, Zambia. The floodplain has seen recent infrastructure developments including the restoration of the canal network and construction of a cross floodplain causeway. In order to create a robust model, a multiobjective calibration uses a time slice approach based on available Landsat satellite image overpasses. An emulator-based sensitivity analysis indicates the significance of hydrological processes in the model. Model evaluation is undertaken for two events in the gauge record (2009 and 2018), of similar magnitude that occur before and after modifications to the floodplain. Results indicate a complex impact of infrastructure development on the hydrodynamics of the floodplain, with a higher peak flow, but with a redistribution of water throughout the floodplain. Deeper flooding is observed in some areas while others experience lower water levels. The sensitivity results also reflect a change in processes, where floodplain flows dominate the 2009 event, whilst channel process dominate the 2018 event. Overall, we show that relatively modest modifications to the floodplain have impacted flood water levels, which in turn will influence access route availability and alter malaria transmission rates.
AB - Large-scale floodplains are important features of the African continent. Regular inundation provides the means to support large populations but can also present problems such as access to health facilities and water body formation that sustain malaria vectors. Modeling of these floodplains is therefore important, but complex. In this research, we develop, calibrate, and validate a hydrodynamic model of the Barotse Floodplain, of the Upper Zambezi, Zambia. The floodplain has seen recent infrastructure developments including the restoration of the canal network and construction of a cross floodplain causeway. In order to create a robust model, a multiobjective calibration uses a time slice approach based on available Landsat satellite image overpasses. An emulator-based sensitivity analysis indicates the significance of hydrological processes in the model. Model evaluation is undertaken for two events in the gauge record (2009 and 2018), of similar magnitude that occur before and after modifications to the floodplain. Results indicate a complex impact of infrastructure development on the hydrodynamics of the floodplain, with a higher peak flow, but with a redistribution of water throughout the floodplain. Deeper flooding is observed in some areas while others experience lower water levels. The sensitivity results also reflect a change in processes, where floodplain flows dominate the 2009 event, whilst channel process dominate the 2018 event. Overall, we show that relatively modest modifications to the floodplain have impacted flood water levels, which in turn will influence access route availability and alter malaria transmission rates.
KW - ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE
KW - ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES
KW - Abrupt/rapid climate change
KW - Air/sea constituent fluxes
KW - Air/sea interactions
KW - Atmospheric
KW - Atmospheric effects
KW - Avalanches
KW - BIOGEOSCIENCES
KW - Benefit‐cost analysis
KW - COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS
KW - CRYOSPHERE
KW - Climate and interannual variability
KW - Climate change and variability
KW - Climate dynamics
KW - Climate impact
KW - Climate impacts
KW - Climate variability
KW - Climatology
KW - Decadal ocean variability
KW - Disaster risk analysis and assessment
KW - Earth system modeling
KW - Earthquake ground motions and engineering seismology
KW - Effusive volcanism
KW - Explosive volcanism
KW - Floodplain dynamics
KW - GEODESY AND GRAVITY
KW - GEOHEALTH
KW - GLOBAL CHANGE
KW - General circulation
KW - Geological
KW - Global change from geodesy
KW - Gravity and isostasy
KW - HYDROLOGY
KW - Human impact
KW - Human impacts
KW - Hydrological cycles and budgets
KW - INFORMATICS
KW - Impacts of global change
KW - Impacts on humans
KW - Land/atmosphere interactions
KW - MARINE GEOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
KW - MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS
KW - Mass balance
KW - Modeling
KW - Mud volcanism
KW - NATURAL HAZARDS
KW - Numerical modeling
KW - Numerical solutions
KW - OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL
KW - OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL
KW - Ocean influence of Earth rotation
KW - Ocean monitoring with geodetic techniques
KW - Ocean/Earth/atmosphere/hydrosphere/cryosphere interactions
KW - Ocean/atmosphere interactions
KW - Oceanic
KW - Oceans
KW - PALEOCEANOGRAPHY
KW - POLICY SCIENCES
KW - Physical modeling
KW - RADIO SCIENCE
KW - Radio oceanography
KW - Regional climate change
KW - Regional modeling
KW - Research Article
KW - Risk
KW - SEISMOLOGY
KW - SPACE WEATHER
KW - Sea level change
KW - Sea level: variations and mean
KW - Solid Earth
KW - Surface waves and tides
KW - Theoretical modeling
KW - Tsunamis and storm surges
KW - Uncertainty
KW - Uncertainty assessment
KW - Uncertainty quantification
KW - VOLCANOLOGY
KW - Vector born diseases
KW - Volcanic effects
KW - Volcanic hazards and risks
KW - Volcano monitoring
KW - Volcano seismology
KW - Volcano/climate interactions
KW - Water cycles
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85143173274&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1029/2021WR030107
DO - 10.1029/2021WR030107
M3 - Article
SN - 0043-1397
VL - 58
JO - Water Resources Research
JF - Water Resources Research
IS - 11
M1 - e2021WR030107
ER -