Prosiectau fesul blwyddyn
Crynodeb
Continental-scale models of malaria climate suitability typically couple well-established temperature-response models with basic estimates of vector habitat availability using rainfall as a proxy. Here we show that across continental Africa, the estimated geographic range of climatic suitability for malaria transmission is more sensitive to the precipitation threshold than the thermal response curve applied. To address this problem we use downscaled daily climate predictions from seven GCMs to run a continental-scale hydrological model for a process-based representation of mosquito breeding habitat availability. A more complex pattern of malaria suitability emerges as water is routed through drainage networks and river corridors serve as year-round transmission foci. The estimated hydro-climatically suitable area for stable malaria transmission is smaller than previous models suggest and shows only a very small increase in state-of-the-art future climate scenarios. However, bigger geographical shifts are observed than with most rainfall threshold models and the pattern of that shift is very different when using a hydrological model to estimate surface water availability for vector breeding.
Iaith wreiddiol | Saesneg |
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Rhif yr erthygl | 4353 |
Nifer y tudalennau | 9 |
Cyfnodolyn | Nature Communications |
Cyfrol | 11 |
Rhif cyhoeddi | 1 |
Dynodwyr Gwrthrych Digidol (DOIs) | |
Statws | Cyhoeddwyd - 28 Awst 2020 |
Ôl bys
Gweld gwybodaeth am bynciau ymchwil 'Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa'. Gyda’i gilydd, maen nhw’n ffurfio ôl bys unigryw.Proffiliau
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Andy Hardy
- Cyfadran Gwyddorau Daear a Bywyd, Daearyddiaeth a Gwyddorau Daear - Senior Lecturer in Remote Sensing and GIS
Unigolyn: Dysgu ac Ymchwil
Prosiectau
- 3 Wedi Gorffen
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FLOODMAL see 12760
Thomas, C., Cross, D., Hardy, A., Macklin, M. & Smith, M. W.
Natural Environment Research Council
01 Gorff 2017 → 30 Meh 2020
Prosiect: Ymchwil a ariannwyd yn allanol
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FLOODMAL - see project 12541
Hardy, A., Macklin, M., Smith, M. W. & Cross, D.
Natural Environment Research Council
01 Gorff 2017 → 30 Meh 2020
Prosiect: Ymchwil a ariannwyd yn allanol
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Hydro-dynamic drivers of malaria transmission hazard in Africa
Thomas, C.
Natural Environment Research Council
01 Maw 2011 → 28 Chwef 2014
Prosiect: Ymchwil a ariannwyd yn allanol