Minor Tremor but Several Casualties: The 2003 Welsh Election

The inaugural election to the devolved National Assembly for Wales in May 1999 produced a sensational result, often described since as a ‘quiet earthquake’ in Welsh politics. Four years on, the second election saw a less dramatic, but still important outcome. In this article we review the background to the May 2003 election, analyse the results and examine detailed survey evidence about how 2003 differed from 1999 in terms of the factors shaping voting patterns and the overall outcome in Wales’ second devolved election.