Pre-flare dynamics of sunspot groups

Several papers provide evidence that the most probable sites of flare onset are the regions of high horizontal magnetic field gradients in solar active regions. Besides the localization of flare-producing areas, this work intends to reveal the characteristic temporal variations in these regions prior to flares. This study uses sunspot data instead of magnetograms and follows the behavior of a suitable defined proxy measure representing the horizontal magnetic field gradient. The source of the data is the SDD (SOHO/MDI-Debrecen Data) sunspot catalog. The most promising pre-flare signatures are the following properties of gradient variation: (1) steep increase, (2) high maximum, (3) significant fluctuation, and (4) a gradual decrease between the maximum and the flare onset that can be related to the "pull mode" of the current layer. These properties may yield a tool for the assessment of flare probability and intensity within the following 8-10 hr.