Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe

Alexander Kurganskiy; Simon Creer; Natasha De Vere; Gareth W. Griffith; Nicholas J. Osborne; Benedict W. Wheeler; Rachel N. McInnes; Yolanda Clewlow; Adam Barber; Georgina L. Brennan; Helen M. Hanlon; Matthew Hegarty; Caitlin Potter; Francis Rowney; Beverley Adams-Groom; Geoff M. Petch; Catherine H. Pashley; Jack Satchwell; Letty A. De Weger; Karen Rasmussen; Gilles Oliver; Charlotte Sindt; Nicolas Bruffaerts; PollerGEN Consortium; Carsten A. Skjøth

doi:10.1126/sciadv.abd7658

Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe

Alexander Kurganskiy^*, Simon Creer, Natasha De Vere, Gareth W. Griffith, Nicholas J. Osborne, Benedict W. Wheeler, Rachel N. McInnes, Yolanda Clewlow, Adam Barber, Georgina L. Brennan, Helen M. Hanlon, Matthew Hegarty, Caitlin Potter, Francis Rowney, Beverley Adams-Groom, Geoff M. Petch, Catherine H. Pashley, Jack Satchwell, Letty A. De Weger, Karen RasmussenGilles Oliver, Charlotte Sindt, Nicolas Bruffaerts, PollerGEN Consortium, Carsten A. Skjøth

^*Awdur cyfatebol y gwaith hwn

Gwyddorau Bywyd

Allbwn ymchwil: Cyfraniad at gyfnodolyn › Erthygl › adolygiad gan gymheiriaid

78 Wedi eu Llwytho i Lawr (Pure)

Crynodeb

Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season’s severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.

Iaith wreiddiol	Saesneg
Rhif yr erthygl	eabd7658
Nifer y tudalennau	11
Cyfnodolyn	Science Advances
Cyfrol	7
Rhif cyhoeddi	13
Dynodwyr Gwrthrych Digidol (DOIs)	https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd7658
Statws	Cyhoeddwyd - 26 Maw 2021

NDC y CU

Mae’r allbwn hwn yn cyfrannu at y Nod(au) Datblygu Cynaliadwy canlynol

Mynediad at Ddogfen

10.1126/sciadv.abd7658Trwydded: CC BY-NC

ArticleFersiwn derfynol wedi’i chyhoeddi, 2.6 MBTrwydded: CC BY-NC
Supplementary MaterialsFersiwn derfynol wedi’i chyhoeddi, 5.38 MBTrwydded: CC BY
Supplementary DataFersiwn derfynol wedi’i chyhoeddi, 253 KBTrwydded: CC BY

Cysylltiad parhaol

Dolen barhaus

Ffeiliau eraill a chysylltiadau

Dolen i’r cyhoeddiad yn Scopus

1 Wedi Gorffen

Using molecular genetics to understand grass species pollen deposition; enhancing bio-aerosol models and implications for human health
Griffith, G., De Vere, N. & Hegarty, M.
Natural Environment Research Council
01 Maw 2016 → 31 Rhag 2020
Prosiect: Ymchwil a ariannwyd yn allanol

Dyfynnu hyn

Kurganskiy, A., Creer, S., De Vere, N., Griffith, G. W., Osborne, N. J., Wheeler, B. W., McInnes, R. N., Clewlow, Y., Barber, A., Brennan, G. L., Hanlon, H. M., Hegarty, M., Potter, C., Rowney, F., Adams-Groom, B., Petch, G. M., Pashley, C. H., Satchwell, J., De Weger, L. A., ... Skjøth, C. A. (2021). Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe. Science Advances, 7(13), [eabd7658]. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd7658

@article{3560555e1c4d4a94bdf2ecbfa1c1f83f,

title = "Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe",

abstract = "Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season{\textquoteright}s severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.",

author = "Alexander Kurganskiy and Simon Creer and {De Vere}, Natasha and Griffith, {Gareth W.} and Osborne, {Nicholas J.} and Wheeler, {Benedict W.} and McInnes, {Rachel N.} and Yolanda Clewlow and Adam Barber and Brennan, {Georgina L.} and Hanlon, {Helen M.} and Matthew Hegarty and Caitlin Potter and Francis Rowney and Beverley Adams-Groom and Petch, {Geoff M.} and Pashley, {Catherine H.} and Jack Satchwell and {De Weger}, {Letty A.} and Karen Rasmussen and Gilles Oliver and Charlotte Sindt and Nicolas Bruffaerts and {PollerGEN Consortium} and Skj{\o}th, {Carsten A.}",

note = "Copyright {\textcopyright} 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).",

year = "2021",

month = mar,

day = "26",

doi = "10.1126/sciadv.abd7658",

language = "English",

volume = "7",

journal = "Science Advances",

issn = "2375-2548",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

number = "13",

}

Kurganskiy, A, Creer, S, De Vere, N, Griffith, GW, Osborne, NJ, Wheeler, BW, McInnes, RN, Clewlow, Y, Barber, A, Brennan, GL, Hanlon, HM, Hegarty, M, Potter, C, Rowney, F, Adams-Groom, B, Petch, GM, Pashley, CH, Satchwell, J, De Weger, LA, Rasmussen, K, Oliver, G, Sindt, C, Bruffaerts, N, PollerGEN Consortium & Skjøth, CA 2021, 'Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe', Science Advances, cyfrol. 7, rhif 13, eabd7658. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd7658

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe

AU - Kurganskiy, Alexander

AU - Creer, Simon

AU - De Vere, Natasha

AU - Griffith, Gareth W.

AU - Osborne, Nicholas J.

AU - Wheeler, Benedict W.

AU - McInnes, Rachel N.

AU - Clewlow, Yolanda

AU - Barber, Adam

AU - Brennan, Georgina L.

AU - Hanlon, Helen M.

AU - Hegarty, Matthew

AU - Potter, Caitlin

AU - Rowney, Francis

AU - Adams-Groom, Beverley

AU - Petch, Geoff M.

AU - Pashley, Catherine H.

AU - Satchwell, Jack

AU - De Weger, Letty A.

AU - Rasmussen, Karen

AU - Oliver, Gilles

AU - Sindt, Charlotte

AU - Bruffaerts, Nicolas

AU - PollerGEN Consortium

AU - Skjøth, Carsten A.

N1 - Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).

PY - 2021/3/26

Y1 - 2021/3/26

N2 - Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season’s severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.

AB - Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season’s severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.

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U2 - 10.1126/sciadv.abd7658

DO - 10.1126/sciadv.abd7658

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AN - SCOPUS:85103532748

SN - 2375-2548

VL - 7

JO - Science Advances

JF - Science Advances

IS - 13

M1 - eabd7658

ER -

Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe

Crynodeb

NDC y CU

Mynediad at Ddogfen

Cysylltiad parhaol

Ffeiliau eraill a chysylltiadau

Ôl bys

Prosiectau

Using molecular genetics to understand grass species pollen deposition; enhancing bio-aerosol models and implications for human health

Dyfynnu hyn