The impact of CAP reform on regional employment: A multi-country, multi-modelling cross-country approach.

Effectiveness and impacts of CAP, and CAP reforms, attract the interest of public more than anytime as the EU economy reels amid an unprecedented crisis. Now that industries throughout Europe are shedding jobs, studying the impact of CAP reforms on employment levels sheds fresh light on a crucial issue. Impacts resulting from the introduced CAP reforms can be expected to be felt beyond the agricultural sector and affect entire regional economies. Impacts on employment levels within the farming sector have influences on non-agricultural sector
regional labour demand. The influence of CAP reform on employment has not been thoroughly and comprehensively investigated using an approach, which accounts for agricultural and nonagricultural effects and covers the diversity of EU rural regions. The research reported in this paper refers to five EU selected regions [Emilia Romagna (IT), East Wales (UK), Anatoliki Makedonia and Thraki (GR), Östergötland (SWE) and Kassel (GER)] to identify and measure CAP’s effects on employment throughout the regional economy. A framework of three different approaches (mixed-method case study investigation, positive mathematical programming, inputoutput analysis) was developed and then applied to those five EU regions to trace out the current and anticipated employment effects of Pillar I and II changes. The main focus of this work is on
consolidating the conclusions derived from different models applied in the five EU regions to deduce valuable policy generalizations and to derive conclusions which might guide policymakers making decisions related to regional and rural development. Results demonstrate that CAP funding, particular Pillar II, contributes to employment maintenance in farming sector but also to non-farming sector serving as a permanent regional “stimulus” package.