Automated Detection of coronaL MAss Ejecta origiNs for Space Weather AppliCations (ALMANAC)

Alerts of potentially hazardous coronal mass ejection (CME) are based on the detection of rapid changes in remote observations of the solar atmosphere. This paper presents a method that detects and estimates the central coordinates of CME eruptions in Extreme Ultraviolet data, with the dual aim of providing an early alert, and giving an initial estimate of the CME direction of propagation to a CME geometrical model. In particular, we plan to link the Automated detection of coronaL MAss ejecta origiNs for space weather AppliCations (ALMANAC) method to the CME detection and characterization module of the Space Weather Empirical Ensemble Package, which is a fully automated modular software package for operational space weather capability currently being developed for the UK Meteorological Office. In this work, ALMANAC is applied to observations by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) aboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). As well as presenting the method, a proof of concept test is made on a limited set of data associated with 20 halo CMEs recorded by the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW) catalog near the activity maximum of solar cycle 24. SDO/AIA data for each event is processed at 6 min cadence to identify the on-disk location and time of each CME. The absolute mean deviance between the ALMANAC and CDAW source event coordinates are within 37.05 ± 29.71 min and 11.01 ± 10.39°. These promising results give a solid foundation for future work, and will provide initial constraints to an automated CME alert and forecasting system.

Key Points
The software package presented can forecast the early signatures of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the low solar atmosphere in real time

The goal of this work is to improve the forecasting of CME arrival times and potential impact when used as part of a software suite

Applied to historical data sets, the method can lead to a greater scientific understanding on the connection between CMEs and space weather

Plain Language Summary
This work details a new tool to be used in the operational space weather forecasting of large eruptions from the solar atmosphere for the UK Meteorology Office. This work has considerable potential for economical and societal impact, since early warning of large space weather events can mitigate the substantial risk to technological infrastructure. We have created a novel software package which can forecast the early signatures of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the low solar atmosphere in real time. The code will eventually be used on a daily basis to improve predictions of CME arrival times and their potential impact at Earth. Furthermore, when the method is applied to historical data sets, it may lead to a greater scientific understanding on the connection between solar eruptive events and space weather.