Abstract
Traditionally, rational models of decision-making assume perfect information is available to the manager. In reality, the paradox of rationality is that full information relates only to the past; choices for the future must be of limited rationality as the future contains both risk and uncertainty.
An analysis of rationality and uncertainty in relation to decision-making, therefore leads to a consideration of Chaos Theory. Whilst recognising that the future is unknowable, nonetheless, Chaos Theory allows for the possibility of an awareness of a range of future states. In addition, it suggests that complete and accurate information, so necessary for rational decision-making, is unobtainable, and the past is not an accurate guide to the future.
Thus, the terms of reference for strategic management should be changed; conditions must be created whereby effective learning takes place, from which new strategies may or may not emerge. Managers should not problem-solve their way out of chaos, instead, generate bold solutions which integrate all the information. Information is thus activating a process by which strategy can emerge from across all levels of the organisation, to provide at least some structured futures thinking.
An analysis of rationality and uncertainty in relation to decision-making, therefore leads to a consideration of Chaos Theory. Whilst recognising that the future is unknowable, nonetheless, Chaos Theory allows for the possibility of an awareness of a range of future states. In addition, it suggests that complete and accurate information, so necessary for rational decision-making, is unobtainable, and the past is not an accurate guide to the future.
Thus, the terms of reference for strategic management should be changed; conditions must be created whereby effective learning takes place, from which new strategies may or may not emerge. Managers should not problem-solve their way out of chaos, instead, generate bold solutions which integrate all the information. Information is thus activating a process by which strategy can emerge from across all levels of the organisation, to provide at least some structured futures thinking.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 173-182 |
Number of pages | 10 |
Journal | Journal of Information Science |
Volume | 25 |
Issue number | 3 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 30 Mar 1999 |