Incorporating Genetic Diversity to Optimize the Plant Conservation Network in the Third Pole

Moses C. Wambulwa, Guang Fu Zhu, Ya-Huang Luo, Zeng Yuan Wu, Jim Provan, Marc W. Cadotte, Alistair S. Jump, Francis N. Wachira, Lian-Ming Gao, Ting-Shuang Yi, Jie Cai, Hong Wang, De-Zhu Li*, Jie Liu*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to the survival of many species. Although protected areas can slow down biodiversity loss, they often lack systematic planning and do not integrate genetic diversity. Genetic diversity is a key prerequisite for species survival and the ability to tolerate new conditions. Using population genetic and distribution data from 96 plant species in the Third Pole (encompassing the Tibetan Plateau and adjacent mountains), we mapped patterns of genetic diversity, projected climate-driven range dynamics and future genetic erosion, and designed an optimal conservation framework for the region. We identified several patches of high haplotype diversity (H-D), with a relatively high number of haplotypes in southeastern Third Pole. Regression models revealed that climate and topography have interacted to shape patterns of genetic diversity, with latitude and precipitation being the best predictors for H-D of cpDNA and nrDNA, respectively. Ecological niche modeling predicted an approximate 43 km northwestward and 86 m upward shift in suitable habitats under future climate scenarios, likely leading to a significant loss of up to 13.195.49 respectively. Alarmingly, 71.20 we recommend expanding the network by 2.02 x 10(5) km(2) (5.91 in the Third Pole, increasing the total conserved area to 1.36 x 10(6) km(2) (39.93 to effectively preserve the evolutionary potential of plants. This study represents an innovative attempt to incorporate genetic diversity into biodiversity conservation efforts.
Original languageEnglish
Article numbere70122
Number of pages21
JournalGlobal Change Biology
Volume31
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 20 Mar 2025

Keywords

  • conservation network
  • ecological niche modeling
  • genetic diversity
  • genetic erosion
  • National Park Cluster
  • protected areas
  • systematic conservation planning
  • Tibetan Plateau

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