TY - JOUR
T1 - Modelled glacier response to centennial temperature and precipitation trends on the Antarctic Peninsula
AU - Davies, Bethan J.
AU - Golledge, Nicholas R.
AU - Glasser, Neil F.
AU - Carrivick, Jonathan L.
AU - Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M.
AU - Barrand, Nicholas E.
AU - van den Broeke, Michiel R.
AU - Hambrey, Michael J.
AU - Smellie, John L.
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) under the Antarctic Funding Initiative grant (NE/F012942/1), awarded to N.F.G. and M.J.H., and a SCAR (Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research) Fellowship awarded to B.J.D. to visit the Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington. Transport logistics and fieldwork on James Ross Island were supported by the British Antarctic Survey, and we thank the captain and crew of the RRS Ernest Shackleton and the RRS James Clark Ross for their support. We thank A. Hill for his field logistical support. We thank the Czech Geological Survey for providing topographical and glaciological data. N. Abram provided a thinning and ice-flow-corrected ice-core accumulation record from the 2007 James Ross Island ice core (AD 1807–2007). We also acknowledge the Netherlands Polar Program of NWO/ALW and the ice2sea project, funded by the European Commission’s 7th Framework Programme through grant number 226375, ice2sea manuscript number 174.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
PY - 2014/11/5
Y1 - 2014/11/5
N2 - The northern Antarctic Peninsula is currently undergoing rapid atmospheric warming(1). Increased glacier-surface melt during the twentieth century(2,3) has contributed to ice-shelf collapse and the widespread acceleration(4), thinning and recession(5) of glaciers. Therefore, glaciers peripheral to the Antarctic Ice Sheet currently make a large contribution to eustatic sea-level rise(6,7), but future melting may be offset by increased precipitation(8). Here we assess glacier-climate relationships both during the past and into the future, using ice-core and geological data and glacier and climate numerical model simulations. Focusing on Glacier IJR45 on James Ross Island, northeast Antarctic Peninsula, our modelling experiments show that this representative glacier is most sensitive to temperature change, not precipitation change. We determine that its most recent expansion occurred during the late Holocene 'Little Ice Age' and not during the warmer mid-Holocene, as previously proposed(9). Simulations using a range of future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate scenarios indicate that future increases in precipitation are unlikely to offset atmospheric-warming-induced melt of peripheral Antarctic Peninsula glaciers.
AB - The northern Antarctic Peninsula is currently undergoing rapid atmospheric warming(1). Increased glacier-surface melt during the twentieth century(2,3) has contributed to ice-shelf collapse and the widespread acceleration(4), thinning and recession(5) of glaciers. Therefore, glaciers peripheral to the Antarctic Ice Sheet currently make a large contribution to eustatic sea-level rise(6,7), but future melting may be offset by increased precipitation(8). Here we assess glacier-climate relationships both during the past and into the future, using ice-core and geological data and glacier and climate numerical model simulations. Focusing on Glacier IJR45 on James Ross Island, northeast Antarctic Peninsula, our modelling experiments show that this representative glacier is most sensitive to temperature change, not precipitation change. We determine that its most recent expansion occurred during the late Holocene 'Little Ice Age' and not during the warmer mid-Holocene, as previously proposed(9). Simulations using a range of future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate scenarios indicate that future increases in precipitation are unlikely to offset atmospheric-warming-induced melt of peripheral Antarctic Peninsula glaciers.
KW - JAMES-ROSS-ISLAND
KW - SEA-LEVEL RISE
KW - SURFACE MASS-BALANCE
KW - LAST 50 YEARS
KW - SHELF HISTORY
KW - ICE-SHEET
KW - CLIMATE
KW - 21ST-CENTURY
KW - 20TH-CENTURY
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84908555613&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/NCLIMATE2369
DO - 10.1038/NCLIMATE2369
M3 - Article
SN - 1758-678X
VL - 4
SP - 993
EP - 998
JO - Nature Climate Change
JF - Nature Climate Change
IS - 11
ER -
