Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe

Alexander Kurganskiy*, Simon Creer, Natasha De Vere, Gareth W. Griffith, Nicholas J. Osborne, Benedict W. Wheeler, Rachel N. McInnes, Yolanda Clewlow, Adam Barber, Georgina L. Brennan, Helen M. Hanlon, Matthew Hegarty, Caitlin Potter, Francis Rowney, Beverley Adams-Groom, Geoff M. Petch, Catherine H. Pashley, Jack Satchwell, Letty A. De Weger, Karen RasmussenGilles Oliver, Charlotte Sindt, Nicolas Bruffaerts, PollerGEN Consortium, Carsten A. Skjøth

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

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Abstract

Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season’s severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbereabd7658
Number of pages11
JournalScience Advances
Volume7
Issue number13
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 26 Mar 2021

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