Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe

Alexander Kurganskiy; Simon Creer; Natasha De Vere; Gareth W. Griffith; Nicholas J. Osborne; Benedict W. Wheeler; Rachel N. McInnes; Yolanda Clewlow; Adam Barber; Georgina L. Brennan; Helen M. Hanlon; Matthew Hegarty; Caitlin Potter; Francis Rowney; Beverley Adams-Groom; Geoff M. Petch; Catherine H. Pashley; Jack Satchwell; Letty A. De Weger; Karen Rasmussen; Gilles Oliver; Charlotte Sindt; Nicolas Bruffaerts; PollerGEN Consortium; Carsten A. Skjøth

doi:10.1126/sciadv.abd7658

Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe

Alexander Kurganskiy^*, Simon Creer, Natasha De Vere, Gareth W. Griffith, Nicholas J. Osborne, Benedict W. Wheeler, Rachel N. McInnes, Yolanda Clewlow, Adam Barber, Georgina L. Brennan, Helen M. Hanlon, Matthew Hegarty, Caitlin Potter, Francis Rowney, Beverley Adams-Groom, Geoff M. Petch, Catherine H. Pashley, Jack Satchwell, Letty A. De Weger, Karen RasmussenGilles Oliver, Charlotte Sindt, Nicolas Bruffaerts, PollerGEN Consortium, Carsten A. Skjøth

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Life Sciences

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Abstract

Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season’s severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.

Original language	English
Article number	eabd7658
Number of pages	11
Journal	Science advances
Volume	7
Issue number	13
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd7658
Publication status	Published - 26 Mar 2021

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ArticleFinal published version, 2.6 MBLicence: CC BY-NC
Supplementary MaterialsFinal published version, 5.38 MBLicence: CC BY
Supplementary DataFinal published version, 253 KBLicence: CC BY

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Kurganskiy, A., Creer, S., De Vere, N., Griffith, G. W., Osborne, N. J., Wheeler, B. W., McInnes, R. N., Clewlow, Y., Barber, A., Brennan, G. L., Hanlon, H. M., Hegarty, M., Potter, C., Rowney, F., Adams-Groom, B., Petch, G. M., Pashley, C. H., Satchwell, J., De Weger, L. A., ... Skjøth, C. A. (2021). Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe. Science advances, 7(13), Article eabd7658. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd7658

@article{3560555e1c4d4a94bdf2ecbfa1c1f83f,

title = "Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe",

abstract = "Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season{\textquoteright}s severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.",

author = "Alexander Kurganskiy and Simon Creer and {De Vere}, Natasha and Griffith, {Gareth W.} and Osborne, {Nicholas J.} and Wheeler, {Benedict W.} and McInnes, {Rachel N.} and Yolanda Clewlow and Adam Barber and Brennan, {Georgina L.} and Hanlon, {Helen M.} and Matthew Hegarty and Caitlin Potter and Francis Rowney and Beverley Adams-Groom and Petch, {Geoff M.} and Pashley, {Catherine H.} and Jack Satchwell and {De Weger}, {Letty A.} and Karen Rasmussen and Gilles Oliver and Charlotte Sindt and Nicolas Bruffaerts and {PollerGEN Consortium} and Skj{\o}th, {Carsten A.}",

note = "Copyright {\textcopyright} 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).",

year = "2021",

month = mar,

day = "26",

doi = "10.1126/sciadv.abd7658",

language = "English",

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journal = "Science advances",

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Kurganskiy, A, Creer, S, De Vere, N, Griffith, GW, Osborne, NJ, Wheeler, BW, McInnes, RN, Clewlow, Y, Barber, A, Brennan, GL, Hanlon, HM, Hegarty, M, Potter, C, Rowney, F, Adams-Groom, B, Petch, GM, Pashley, CH, Satchwell, J, De Weger, LA, Rasmussen, K, Oliver, G, Sindt, C, Bruffaerts, N, PollerGEN Consortium & Skjøth, CA 2021, 'Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe', Science advances, vol. 7, no. 13, eabd7658. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd7658

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AU - Kurganskiy, Alexander

AU - Creer, Simon

AU - De Vere, Natasha

AU - Griffith, Gareth W.

AU - Osborne, Nicholas J.

AU - Wheeler, Benedict W.

AU - McInnes, Rachel N.

AU - Clewlow, Yolanda

AU - Barber, Adam

AU - Brennan, Georgina L.

AU - Hanlon, Helen M.

AU - Hegarty, Matthew

AU - Potter, Caitlin

AU - Rowney, Francis

AU - Adams-Groom, Beverley

AU - Petch, Geoff M.

AU - Pashley, Catherine H.

AU - Satchwell, Jack

AU - De Weger, Letty A.

AU - Rasmussen, Karen

AU - Oliver, Gilles

AU - Sindt, Charlotte

AU - Bruffaerts, Nicolas

AU - PollerGEN Consortium

AU - Skjøth, Carsten A.

N1 - Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).

PY - 2021/3/26

Y1 - 2021/3/26

N2 - Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season’s severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.

AB - Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season’s severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.

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DO - 10.1126/sciadv.abd7658

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AN - SCOPUS:85103532748

SN - 2375-2548

VL - 7

JO - Science advances

JF - Science advances

IS - 13

M1 - eabd7658

ER -

Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe

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Using molecular genetics to understand grass species pollen deposition; enhancing bio-aerosol models and implications for human health

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Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe

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Using molecular genetics to understand grass species pollen deposition; enhancing bio-aerosol models and implications for human health

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