To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?

Richard Kipling, C. F. E. Topp, André Bannink, Dave Bartley, Isabel Blanco-penedo, R Cortignani, Agustin del Prado, Gabriele Dono, Philippe Faverdin, Anne-Isabelle Graux, Nicholas J Hutchings, Ludwig Lauwers, Şeyda Özkan Gülzari, Pytrik Reidsma, Susanne Rolinski, Margarita Ruiz-Ramos, Daniel L. Sandars, Renata Sándor, Martin Schönhart, Giovanna SeddaiuJantine van Middelkoop, Shailesh Shrestha, Isabelle Weindl, Vera Eory

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12 Citations (Scopus)
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Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.
Original languageEnglish
Article number104492
Number of pages22
JournalEnvironmental Modelling and Software
Early online date29 Jul 2019
Publication statusPublished - 01 Oct 2019


  • Adaptation
  • Agricultural modelling
  • Climate change
  • Research challenges


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